Kasımpaşa 0-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Bodrum FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Bodrum FK at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bodrum FK — last 7 games: 3W 0D 4L — 1.29 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%).
On the road, Bodrum FK have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.29 (Bodrum FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Bodrum FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 43% | Bodrum FK 43%). Note also that Bodrum FK surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Kasımpaşa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.45 xG and Bodrum FK 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.830 / defence 1.051 | Bodrum FK attack 0.720 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.312. Bodrum FK's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 45 games and Bodrum FK's last 7.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.14 | Draw 3.54 | Bodrum FK 4.01. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodrum FK 33% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 8 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.45 / Bodrum FK 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.830 / def 1.051 | Bodrum FK attack 0.720 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Bodrum FK xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 8) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 47% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.83) and Bodrum FK's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 45 games and Bodrum FK's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.54
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.44
0.99
Bodrum FK xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.99 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 4D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Bodrum FK sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across their last 3 home games, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodrum FK have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (1W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Bodrum FK
Early Season
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Bodrum FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Bodrum FK
Early Season
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 3W 0D 4L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Bodrum FK away?
Bodrum FK's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 0.67 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2025: Bodrum FK 1-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kasımpaşa 33% BTTS, Bodrum FK 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kasımpaşa and 33% for Bodrum FK.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bodrum FK in 33%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 67% of games; Bodrum FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Bodrum FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 33% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 33% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 100% of Bodrum FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kasımpaşa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, as Kasımpaşa and Bodrum FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.45 xG and Bodrum FK 0.99 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Bodrum FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 25%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 43%, Bodrum FK 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.