Kasımpaşa 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Kasımpaşa welcome Beşiktaş to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 home games — 1.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beşiktaş — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 50% versus Beşiktaş 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 43% | Beşiktaş 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.44 xG and Beşiktaş 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.988 / defence 1.329 | Beşiktaş attack 0.784 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.093. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Kasımpaşa games / 14 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 57% | Beşiktaş 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.44 / Beşiktaş 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.988 / def 1.329 | Beşiktaş attack 0.784 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Beşiktaş xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 43% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.99) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.46
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.58
1.14
Beşiktaş xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.14 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 4D 8L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Beşiktaş away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 0.83 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 67%, Beşiktaş 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kasımpaşa) and 50% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kasımpaşa's games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 50% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.44 xG and Beşiktaş 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.99 / defence 1.33 against Beşiktaş attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 43%, Beşiktaş 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.