Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Kasımpaşa versus Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 7 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa at this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Kasımpaşa, 1.70 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Başakşehir, who have claimed 8 wins from 10 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Başakşehir have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 45% | Başakşehir 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.75 xG and Başakşehir 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / defence 0.935 | Başakşehir attack 0.811 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Kasımpaşa games / 42 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 57% | Draw 23% | Başakşehir 19%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Başakşehir 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 40% | Başakşehir 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 57% | Draw 23% | Başakşehir 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.75 / Başakşehir 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / def 0.935 | Başakşehir attack 0.811 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Başakşehir xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 57% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Record (10 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 8W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.81x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.27
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.65
0.90
Başakşehir xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
30.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.90 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 15D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.62 PPG from 42 outings (19W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 6W 9D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.67 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.35 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Başakşehir have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 50%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Kasımpaşa) and 65% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Başakşehir in 35%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 30% of games; Başakşehir in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 50% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 65% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.