Kasımpaşa 1-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Kasımpaşa versus Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 29 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season.
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Kasımpaşa, 1.10 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Başakşehir, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Başakşehir winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Başakşehir have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Başakşehir 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 59% | Başakşehir 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Başakşehir 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.894 / defence 1.024 | Başakşehir attack 0.955 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.346. Data: 49 Kasımpaşa games / 49 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.09 / Başakşehir 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.894 / def 1.024 | Başakşehir attack 0.955 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Başakşehir xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 29% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Record (7 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 6W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.95x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
29%
3.50
32%
3.14
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.40
1.31
Başakşehir xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.31 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 18D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.37 PPG from 49 outings (19W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.37 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 10D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (9W 2D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.55 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 14W 18D 17L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.04 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Başakşehir have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 75%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kasımpaşa) and 58% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kasımpaşa's games and 50% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 58% of Başakşehir's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Başakşehir 1.31 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Başakşehir attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 59%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.