Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kasımpaşa take on Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Kasımpaşa welcome Antalyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 0W 4D 6L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 0.50 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Antalyaspor and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Antalyaspor trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 58% | Antalyaspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 0.99 xG and Antalyaspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.802 / defence 1.051 | Antalyaspor attack 0.788 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.291. Data: 53 Kasımpaşa games / 53 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Antalyaspor 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 70% | Antalyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Kasımpaşa 0.99 / Antalyaspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.802 / def 1.051 | Antalyaspor attack 0.788 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Antalyaspor xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 29% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Kasımpaşa 3W | Draws 3 | Antalyaspor 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.80) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.49
38%
2.60
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.05
1.07
Antalyaspor xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.7 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.07 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 14W 20D 19L from 53 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 26L across 53 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.17 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 5W 11D 10L from 26 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 14W 20D 19L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 16W 11D 26L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.00 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
3
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 73%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kasımpaşa) and 46% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Kasımpaşa's games and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 46% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kasımpaşa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 0.99 xG and Antalyaspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against Antalyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Antalyaspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.17 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.