Hatayspor 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 44%, yet in-form Sivasspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Hatayspor welcome Sivasspor to Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hatayspor stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Hatayspor have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Sivasspor have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Sivasspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Sivasspor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Hatayspor's games and 60% of Sivasspor's (from Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Hatayspor have won 1, Sivasspor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Hatayspor 0–0 Sivasspor — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hatayspor trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Sivasspor trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 66% | Sivasspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.64 xG and Sivasspor 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.014 / defence 1.111 | Sivasspor attack 0.992 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.154. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 61 games and Sivasspor's last 61.

Result probabilities: Hatayspor 44% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.29 | Draw 3.44 | Sivasspor 3.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sivasspor (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 90% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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