Hatayspor 1-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hatayspor face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hatayspor host Başakşehir at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Başakşehir — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Başakşehir in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Başakşehir have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Hatayspor's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Başakşehir winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Başakşehir have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Başakşehir 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 62% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Başakşehir 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.922 / defence 1.137 | Başakşehir attack 1.126 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.222. Data: 69 Hatayspor games / 69 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 42%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Başakşehir 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Hatayspor 1.31 / Başakşehir 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.922 / def 1.137 | Başakşehir attack 1.126 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Başakşehir xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Hatayspor 1 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 30% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
Record (5 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Hatayspor and Başakşehir in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
30%
3.32
28%
3.55
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.87
1.56
Başakşehir xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
15.86
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.56 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 13W 17D 39L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 32W 15D 22L from 69 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (9W 11D 14L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 11W 10D 13L from 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.42 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 13W 17D 39L in their last 69 games (0.81 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 32W 15D 22L in their last 69 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.12 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 50%, Başakşehir 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hatayspor) and 38% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 41% of games; Başakşehir in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 44% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Hatayspor's recent games and 38% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Hatayspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 1-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Başakşehir 1.56 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Başakşehir attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 30% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 42%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 62%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.