Giresunspor 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Giresunspor welcome Fenerbahçe to Çotanak Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Giresunspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor at Çotanak Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Giresunspor 1.00 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Giresunspor, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 38% versus Fenerbahçe 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 29% | Fenerbahçe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.08 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.800 / defence 1.314 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.960 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.095. Data: 24 Giresunspor games / 24 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 29% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 43%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Giresunspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 29% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Giresunspor 1.08 / Fenerbahçe 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.800 / def 1.314 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.960 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Fenerbahçe xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Giresunspor 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 29% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Giresunspor's attack rating (0.80) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.55
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.46
1.38
Fenerbahçe xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.38 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 5D 12L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 10W 7D 7L from 24 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Giresunspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Giresunspor are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.50 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 10W 7D 7L in their last 24 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Giresunspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Giresunspor 1-1 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 42%, Fenerbahçe 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Giresunspor) and 42% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Giresunspor's games and 75% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Giresunspor's recent games and 42% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Giresunspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Giresunspor 1-2 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.08 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.38 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.31 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 29% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 43%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 29%, Fenerbahçe 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.