Giresunspor 1-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Giresunspor welcome Antalyaspor to Çotanak Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Çotanak Stadyumu this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Giresunspor) versus 0.90 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Giresunspor's 20% and Antalyaspor's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Giresunspor trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Antalyaspor trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 30% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Giresunspor 10% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 0.94 xG and Antalyaspor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.677 / defence 0.977 | Antalyaspor attack 0.727 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.119. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Giresunspor games / 10 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 37% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Antalyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Antalyaspor's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Giresunspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 20% | Antalyaspor 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 37% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Giresunspor 0.94 / Antalyaspor 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.677 / def 0.977 | Antalyaspor attack 0.727 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Antalyaspor xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Giresunspor 1 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 37% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Giresunspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Antalyaspor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Giresunspor's attack rating (0.68) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
37%
2.67
33%
2.99
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
1.74
0.80
Antalyaspor xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Giresunspor and 0.80 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 0.90 PPG, Antalyaspor on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Giresunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Giresunspor have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Antalyaspor in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when Antalyaspor won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Antalyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 June 2023, when Giresunspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Antalyaspor tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Giresunspor 25% BTTS, Antalyaspor 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Giresunspor and 25% for Antalyaspor.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Giresunspor have failed to score in 50% of games; Antalyaspor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 25% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Giresunspor's recent games and 25% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Giresunspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Giresunspor 1-2 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 0.94 xG and Antalyaspor 0.80 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.68 / defence 0.98 against Antalyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 37% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 29%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 10%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 0.90 PPG, Antalyaspor 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.