Gaziantep FK 1-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gaziantep FK face Trabzonspor.

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Analysis & Preview

Trabzonspor travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Gaziantep FK stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Trabzonspor away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gaziantep FK at 1.50 PPG versus Trabzonspor's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Gaziantep FK, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2022, ended Gaziantep FK 2–3 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 41% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 59% | Trabzonspor 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.19 xG and Trabzonspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.750 / defence 0.959 | Trabzonspor attack 1.247 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.244. Gaziantep FK's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 49 games and Trabzonspor's last 49.

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.34 | Draw 3.78 | Trabzonspor 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gaziantep FK's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 10% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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