Gaziantep FK 0-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Başakşehir travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.20 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Başakşehir have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Gaziantep FK.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Gaziantep FK 0–2 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 48% versus Başakşehir 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 59% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.773 / defence 1.096 | Başakşehir attack 1.005 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.202. Gaziantep FK's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 61 games and Başakşehir's last 62.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.86 | Draw 2.97 | Başakşehir 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Başakşehir 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gaziantep FK's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 60% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.03 / Başakşehir 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.773 / def 1.096 | Başakşehir attack 1.005 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Başakşehir xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 26% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.77) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 61 games and Başakşehir's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
26%
3.86
34%
2.97
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.35
1.32
Başakşehir xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.32 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 13W 14D 34L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 26W 14D 21L from 61 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (6W 9D 15L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 9W 9D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.36 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 13W 14D 34L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 26W 14D 21L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.90 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 5-1 Gaziantep FK.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
8
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Başakşehir have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Başakşehir 2-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 53%, Başakşehir 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Gaziantep FK) and 37% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 43% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 37% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 70% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Gaziantep FK 0-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 59%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.