Göztepe 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı plays host to Göztepe versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 0.89 PPG across 9 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's home record at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Süper Lig appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 3D 0L across 9 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.33 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.11 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 1D 0L from 5 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Trabzonspor are the stronger side — 1.44 PPG clear of the hosts (2.33 vs 0.89). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 67% and Trabzonspor 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 56% | Trabzonspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 0.81 xG and Trabzonspor 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.673 / defence 1.227 | Trabzonspor attack 1.200 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.148. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Göztepe games / 9 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 18% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 58%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Trabzonspor 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 25% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 18% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Göztepe 0.81 / Trabzonspor 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.673 / def 1.227 | Trabzonspor attack 1.200 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Trabzonspor xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Göztepe 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 18% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Göztepe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-0L in 9 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.67) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.20x) against Göztepe's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
18%
5.65
24%
4.18
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.50
1.69
Trabzonspor xG
5.65
18%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
3%
30.62
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.69 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (6W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.44 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 0L in their last 9 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.75 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 25%, Trabzonspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Göztepe) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 50%; Göztepe have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Göztepe's recent matches and 50% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Göztepe's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Göztepe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Göztepe 0-1 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 0.81 xG and Trabzonspor 1.69 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.67 / defence 1.23 against Trabzonspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 18% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 58%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 56%, Trabzonspor 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.