Göztepe 3-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Göztepe's home record at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Göztepe are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Göztepe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Göztepe and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 53% versus Kasımpaşa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 47% | Kasımpaşa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.26 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.896 / defence 0.982 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.918 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.160. Data: 64 Göztepe games / 64 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 38% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 28%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Kasımpaşa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Göztepe 50% | Kasımpaşa 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 38% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Göztepe 1.26 / Kasımpaşa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.896 / def 0.982 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.918 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Kasımpaşa xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Göztepe 3 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 38% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Göztepe and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
Record (5 meetings): Göztepe 4W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.90) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.92x) against Göztepe's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.95
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.31
1.05
Kasımpaşa xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.05 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Göztepe come into this having played 64 games, going 25W 21D 18L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.16 PPG from 64 outings (17W 23D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Göztepe against 1.16 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Göztepe's home form reads 16W 12D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.19 points per game from 32 outings (9W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.36 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 62%.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 25W 21D 18L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 23D 24L in their last 64 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Göztepe's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.88 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won 5-0 on 13 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Göztepe 3-3 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Kasımpaşa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Göztepe) and 62% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Göztepe's games and 62% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Göztepe's recent games and 62% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, as Göztepe and Kasımpaşa drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.26 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.05 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 38% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 47%, Kasımpaşa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.50 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.