Fenerbahçe 4-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season.
Pendikspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pendikspor away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 1.50 PPG lead over Pendikspor (2.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Pendikspor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fenerbahçe 1W, Pendikspor 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 5–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 54% versus Pendikspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 61% | Pendikspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 3.23 xG and Pendikspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.484 / defence 1.004 | Pendikspor attack 0.862 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.168. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — their λ of 3.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Fenerbahçe games / 28 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 79% | Draw 13% | Pendikspor 7%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Pendikspor 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (3.23 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 90% | Pendikspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 79% | Draw 13% | Pendikspor 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 62% | xG Fenerbahçe 3.23 / Pendikspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.484 / def 1.004 | Pendikspor attack 0.862 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.23
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Pendikspor xG
62%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 79% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 1W | Draws 0 | Pendikspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Pendikspor's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.23. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.86x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 64/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
79%
1.26
13%
7.45
7%
13.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.23
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.24
1.01
Pendikspor xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.45
13%
Draw
13.74
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
4%
25.30
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.23 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.01 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.61 PPG on a 23W 4D 1L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Pendikspor's form line: 6W 8D 14L from 28 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pendikspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.36 PPG from 14 outings (10W 3D 1L).
On the road, Pendikspor have gone 2W 5D 7L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.14 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 64%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Pendikspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 4D 1L in their last 28 games (2.61 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Pendikspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.36 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Pendikspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when Fenerbahçe 4-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Fenerbahçe, 79% for Pendikspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Fenerbahçe and 57% for Pendikspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Fenerbahçe's games and 79% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 57% of Pendikspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Pendikspor 4-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 3.23 xG and Pendikspor 1.01 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.48 / defence 1.00 against Pendikspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.47, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 79% | Draw 13% | Pendikspor 7%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 61%, Pendikspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Pendikspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.86 average — above their attacking norm. Pendikspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.