Fenerbahçe 2-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 1 as Fenerbahçe welcome Alanyaspor to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Fenerbahçe) versus 1.80 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fenerbahçe: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Alanyaspor, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Fenerbahçe trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 60% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 70% | Alanyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.71 xG and Alanyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.251 / defence 0.885 | Alanyaspor attack 1.046 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.239. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Fenerbahçe games / 40 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 4.00. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.71 / Alanyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.251 / def 0.885 | Alanyaspor attack 1.046 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Alanyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 50% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Fenerbahçe 6W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fenerbahçe's attack at 1.25x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.99
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.85
1.15
Alanyaspor xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.15 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 40 games, going 29W 7D 4L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.30 PPG from 40 outings (14W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 16W 2D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 29W 7D 4L in their last 40 games (2.35 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.50 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 60%, Alanyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Fenerbahçe and 50% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fenerbahçe's games and 55% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 1, as Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.71 xG and Alanyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.25 / defence 0.89 against Alanyaspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 25%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 70%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.