Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Sivasspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.10 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Sivasspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–4 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Sivasspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Sivasspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.35 xG and Sivasspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.862 / defence 1.141 | Sivasspor attack 0.841 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.136. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Fatih Karagümrük games / 25 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Sivasspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Sivasspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.35 / Sivasspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.862 / def 1.141 | Sivasspor attack 0.841 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sivasspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 42% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.54
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.44
1.09
Sivasspor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.09 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 6D 10L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (8W 10D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.32 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.32 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 8W 10D 7L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Sivasspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.58 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Sivasspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Sivasspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 58% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 67% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 58% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.35 xG and Sivasspor 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Sivasspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.37, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 30%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Sivasspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.32 PPG, Sivasspor 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.