Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK encounter.

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Match Analysis

Eyüpspor host Çorum FK at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Süper Lig matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On current form, Eyüpspor have the edge — a 1.07 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

In-Play Data

Eyüpspor trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.

Çorum FK trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 33% versus Çorum FK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 33% | Çorum FK 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.17 xG and Çorum FK 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / defence 0.937 | Çorum FK attack 1.084 / defence 1.567. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.567 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 3 Çorum FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 59% | Draw 20% | Çorum FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Çorum FK 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Çorum FK 67%.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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