Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Besiktas Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Besiktas Park this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 2.10 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 2 for Trabzonspor and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Trabzonspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Trabzonspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.096 / defence 0.985 | Trabzonspor attack 1.293 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Beşiktaş games / 68 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 35% | Draw 32% | Trabzonspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Trabzonspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 35% | Draw 32% | Trabzonspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 62% | xG Beşiktaş 1.46 / Trabzonspor 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.096 / def 0.985 | Trabzonspor attack 1.293 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Besiktas Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 35% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Record (9 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 5 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.10) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.15
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.88
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.42 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 34W 19D 15L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 32W 21D 15L from 68 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.78 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.94 PPG from 34 outings (20W 6D 8L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 13W 10D 11L from 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.72 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 62%.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 34W 19D 15L in their last 68 games (1.78 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 21D 15L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.94 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 68%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Beşiktaş) and 53% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Beşiktaş's games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Beşiktaş's matches and 53% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Besiktas Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Trabzonspor attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 35% | Draw 32% | Trabzonspor 33%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.78 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.