Beşiktaş 2-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Göztepe travel to Vodafone Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 1D 2L at Vodafone Park — 2.11 PPG. They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Vodafone Park than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.10 PPG, Göztepe 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 59% and Göztepe 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 71% | Göztepe 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.99 xG and Göztepe 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.218 / defence 1.466 | Göztepe attack 0.937 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.171. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Beşiktaş games / 17 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 30%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 3.33. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 56% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Beşiktaş 1.99 / Göztepe 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.218 / def 1.466 | Göztepe attack 0.937 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Göztepe xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 23 December 2021 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Göztepe a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Beşiktaş and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Göztepe in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.24
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.60
1.61
Göztepe xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
4%
24.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.61 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş come into this having played 17 games, going 7W 4D 6L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beşiktaş's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 0.94 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Göztepe away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.00 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
2
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Göztepe have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beşiktaş at 62%, Göztepe at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Beşiktaş and 75% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Beşiktaş's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Beşiktaş's matches and 75% of Göztepe's.
Do Beşiktaş and Göztepe tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Göztepe 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Göztepe 2-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.99 xG and Göztepe 1.61 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.22 / defence 1.47 against Göztepe attack 0.94 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 30%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 71%, Göztepe 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.