Başakşehir 3-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.30 for Sivasspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 35% versus Sivasspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 39% | Sivasspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.108 / defence 0.961 | Sivasspor attack 0.986 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.256. Data: 51 Başakşehir games / 51 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Sivasspor 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Başakşehir 1.94 / Sivasspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.108 / def 0.961 | Sivasspor attack 0.986 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sivasspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 55% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Başakşehir and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.99x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.44
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.13
1.19
Sivasspor xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
3%
30.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.19 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 11D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.16 PPG from 51 outings (15W 14D 22L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.16 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 15W 3D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (10W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 61%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Sivasspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.92 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 6, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 32%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Başakşehir) and 68% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sivasspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 56% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Başakşehir's matches and 68% of Sivasspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Sivasspor 3-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 55% | Draw 23% | Sivasspor 23%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 39%, Sivasspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.51 PPG, Sivasspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.