Başakşehir 2-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 56%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Başakşehir welcome Rizespor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 18 January 2025 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Başakşehir's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Rizespor have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Rizespor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Başakşehir have won 3, Rizespor 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2024, ended Başakşehir 1–1 Rizespor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Rizespor 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 45% | Rizespor 55%). Note also that Rizespor surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Başakşehir recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.95 xG and Rizespor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.171 / defence 0.965 | Rizespor attack 0.914 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.192. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 56 games and Rizespor's last 56.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.77 | Draw 3.95 | Rizespor 5.49. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 70% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 20 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Başakşehir 1.95 / Rizespor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.171 / def 0.965 | Rizespor attack 0.914 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Rizespor xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Rizespor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Rizespor part of?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 20) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, Rizespor a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Başakşehir and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 56 games and Rizespor's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.95
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.00
1.05
Rizespor xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
38.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.05 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 56 games, going 25W 12D 19L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.32 PPG from 56 outings (21W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.55 PPG, Rizespor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 14W 7D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 3D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.20 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 25W 12D 19L in their last 56 games (1.55 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Rizespor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.75 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rizespor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 3-0 Rizespor.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 54%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 68% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rizespor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Başakşehir's matches and 68% of Rizespor's.
Do Başakşehir and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 89% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Rizespor 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.95 xG and Rizespor 1.05 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Rizespor attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 18%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 45%, Rizespor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rizespor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.55 PPG, Rizespor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.