Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Beşiktaş at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 2.00 (Beşiktaş). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 3, Beşiktaş 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 58% and Beşiktaş 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 58% | Beşiktaş 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.68 xG and Beşiktaş 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.224 / defence 1.036 | Beşiktaş attack 1.222 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.309. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Başakşehir games / 57 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 80% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Başakşehir 1.68 / Beşiktaş 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.224 / def 1.036 | Beşiktaş attack 1.222 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Beşiktaş xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Başakşehir 2 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş part of?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 36% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Başakşehir and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Record (9 meetings): Başakşehir 3W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.22) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.47
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.34
1.66
Beşiktaş xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.66 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 12D 20L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 27W 18D 12L from 57 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.53 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (12W 9D 7L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 10W 13D 5L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.68 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Beşiktaş away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.61 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 64%, Beşiktaş 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Başakşehir) and 36% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Başakşehir's games and 57% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Başakşehir's recent games and 36% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Başakşehir 2-3 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.68 xG and Beşiktaş 1.66 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Beşiktaş attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 58%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.53 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.