Başakşehir 0-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Alanyaspor meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.71 xG and Alanyaspor 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Alanyaspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 0.756. Data: 0 Başakşehir games / 0 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 57% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 57% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Başakşehir 1.71 / Alanyaspor 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Alanyaspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.744 / away 0.756 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Alanyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 57% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Başakşehir and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (0.85) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.85x) against Başakşehir's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
57%
1.75
30%
3.32
13%
7.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.44
0.74
Alanyaspor xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
7.92
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
43.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.74 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Pre-Season
Alanyaspor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
2
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.71 xG and Alanyaspor 0.74 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Alanyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 57% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 13%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.