Başakşehir 3-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Alanyaspor meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Alanyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Başakşehir, 1.20 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Başakşehir, 3 for Alanyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 36% versus Alanyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Alanyaspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.067 / defence 0.870 | Alanyaspor attack 0.775 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.277. Data: 55 Başakşehir games / 55 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 5.00. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Alanyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Başakşehir 1.51 / Alanyaspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.067 / def 0.870 | Alanyaspor attack 0.775 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Başakşehir and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.07) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.78x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.37
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.37
0.86
Alanyaspor xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.86 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 24W 13D 18L from 55 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 24L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 16W 4D 7L from 27 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Alanyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.93 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
2
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 33%, Alanyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Başakşehir) and 63% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 26% of games; Alanyaspor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 48% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Başakşehir's recent games and 63% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Alanyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Alanyaspor 3-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Alanyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 20%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Alanyaspor 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.