Antalyaspor 2-2 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Antalyaspor welcome İstanbulspor to Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
İstanbulspor — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
İstanbulspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Antalyaspor, 0 for İstanbulspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Antalyaspor 2–1 İstanbulspor — a Antalyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus İstanbulspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 41% | İstanbulspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and İstanbulspor 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / defence 0.832 | İstanbulspor attack 0.790 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.145. Antalyaspor's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 61 games and İstanbulspor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | İstanbulspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.18 | Draw 2.88 | İstanbulspor 5.15. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and İstanbulspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | İstanbulspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | İstanbulspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.27 / İstanbulspor 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / def 0.832 | İstanbulspor attack 0.790 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.75
İstanbulspor xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 2 İstanbulspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 46% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against İstanbulspor's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 61 games and İstanbulspor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
46%
2.18
35%
2.88
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.02
0.75
İstanbulspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.75 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 19W 18D 24L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
İstanbulspor's form line: 15W 10D 36L from 61 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.23 PPG, İstanbulspor on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 7W 4D 19L from their last 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs İstanbulspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 15W 10D 36L in their last 61 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.60 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
0
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Antalyaspor 2-2 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 53%, İstanbulspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 53% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games; İstanbulspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 43% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 53% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 75% of İstanbulspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 26, as Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and İstanbulspor 0.75 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. İstanbulspor outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.83 against İstanbulspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | İstanbulspor 19%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 41%, İstanbulspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.