Antalyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Antalyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Antalyaspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Başakşehir's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.60 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Antalyaspor 2–5 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 49% | Başakşehir 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Antalyaspor surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Başakşehir have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.88 xG and Başakşehir 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.916 / defence 1.181 | Başakşehir attack 1.090 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.266. Başakşehir's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antalyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 59 games and Başakşehir's last 59.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 33%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.32 | Draw 4.12 | Başakşehir 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.88 / Başakşehir 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.916 / def 1.181 | Başakşehir attack 1.090 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Başakşehir xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Antalyaspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 59 games and Başakşehir's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.12
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.51
1.63
Başakşehir xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.63 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 19W 17D 23L from 59 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 20L across 59 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.25 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 13W 10D 6L from their last 29 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.63 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 27W 12D 20L in their last 59 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won Antalyaspor 0-4 Başakşehir.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 March 2026: Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 59%, Başakşehir 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Antalyaspor) and 45% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Başakşehir in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 45% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 45% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 69% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Başakşehir finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.88 xG and Başakşehir 1.63 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Başakşehir attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 33%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Başakşehir 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.