Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Friday 5 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Antalyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.30 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Antalyaspor have won 3, Alanyaspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended Antalyaspor 3–1 Alanyaspor — a Antalyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus Alanyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 45% | Alanyaspor 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.830 / defence 0.796 | Alanyaspor attack 0.870 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.260. Antalyaspor have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Alanyaspor's projected output down. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 53 games and Alanyaspor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.23 | Draw 3.19 | Alanyaspor 4.22. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 19 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.29 / Alanyaspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.830 / def 0.796 | Alanyaspor attack 0.870 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 5 January 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 19) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 53 games and Alanyaspor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.19
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.17
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
15.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.87 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 17W 14D 22L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 24L across 53 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 12W 7D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across their last 26 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 13D 24L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won Antalyaspor 3-0 Alanyaspor.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 5, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 54%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 65% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antalyaspor's matches and 65% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 72% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 45%, Alanyaspor 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.