Ankaragücü 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 January 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ankaragücü — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Eryaman Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ankaragücü at 1.20 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ankaragücü have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ankaragücü trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 63% and Fatih Karagümrük 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 49% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.22 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.794 / defence 0.896 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.236. Ankaragücü's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Ankaragücü games / 57 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 43% | Draw 35% | Fatih Karagümrük 22%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 43% | Draw 35% | Fatih Karagümrük 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Ankaragücü 1.22 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.794 / def 0.896 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Fatih Karagümrük xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 24 January 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Ankaragücü 2 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 43% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ankaragücü's attack at 0.79x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
43%
2.34
35%
2.87
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.04
0.82
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 0.82 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 17W 16D 24L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 21L across 57 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.18 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 9W 8D 11L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.72 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 18W 18D 21L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.25 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Fatih Karagümrük won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2024, when Ankaragücü 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 61%, Fatih Karagümrük 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ankaragücü) and 61% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ankaragücü's games and 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ankaragücü's matches and 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.22 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.82 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.79 / defence 0.90 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 43% | Draw 35% | Fatih Karagümrük 22%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 49%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.18 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ankaragücü win broke the near-deadlock. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.