Ankaragücü 0-4 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Antalyaspor travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ankaragücü — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's home record at Eryaman Stadyumu: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ankaragücü 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ankaragücü, 0 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ankaragücü in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 64% versus Antalyaspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 55% | Antalyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.41 xG and Antalyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.987 / defence 0.823 | Antalyaspor attack 0.872 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.209. Data: 47 Ankaragücü games / 47 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Antalyaspor 4.76. Ankaragücü hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ankaragücü at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Ankaragücü 60% | Antalyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ankaragücü 1.41 / Antalyaspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.987 / def 0.823 | Antalyaspor attack 0.872 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Antalyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor?
Ankaragücü 0 - 4 Antalyaspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 47% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Ankaragücü 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ankaragücü's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
47%
2.11
32%
3.11
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.28
0.87
Antalyaspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 0.87 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 10D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.19 PPG from 47 outings (15W 11D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.17 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ankaragücü's home form reads 8W 6D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.78 points per game from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Antalyaspor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.30 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Antalyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
1
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 61%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ankaragücü) and 30% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 26% of games; Antalyaspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ankaragücü's recent games and 30% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ankaragücü and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ankaragücü.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Ankaragücü 0-4 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.41 xG and Antalyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Antalyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 55%, Antalyaspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.17 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.