Amed vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Çorum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amed and Çorum FK meet at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amed have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed at Diyarbakir Stadium this season: 6W 0D 0L from 6 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Çorum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Çorum FK have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Amed's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Çorum FK's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Çorum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Amed 60% and Çorum FK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 80% | Çorum FK 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.70 xG and Çorum FK 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.428 / defence 0.917 | Çorum FK attack 1.327 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Çorum FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Amed games / 10 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 62% | Draw 17% | Çorum FK 20%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.61 | Draw 5.88 | Çorum FK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Amed (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.70 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Amed 50% | Çorum FK 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 62% | Draw 17% | Çorum FK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 73% | xG Amed 2.70 / Çorum FK 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.428 / def 0.917 | Çorum FK attack 1.327 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Amed (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Çorum FK xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Çorum FK kick off?
Amed vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Çorum FK part of?
Amed vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 62% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 20% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Amed and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Çorum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Çorum FK in?
Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Çorum FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.43x the league average against Çorum FK's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Çorum FK's attack (1.33x) against Amed's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
62%
1.60
17%
5.74
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Amed xG
Total xG
4.22
1.52
Çorum FK xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
7%
14.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
1%
73.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Amed and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Amed and 1.52 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Çorum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Amed have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 7W 2D 1L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Çorum FK's form line: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Çorum FK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Amed have posted 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Çorum FK have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 2.10 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Amed have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Çorum FK in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Çorum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 games (2.30 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Çorum FK away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Çorum FK away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Amed or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 50%, Çorum FK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Amed and 83% for Çorum FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Çorum FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Amed's games and 67% of Çorum FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amed vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Amed's matches and 83% of Çorum FK's.
Do Amed and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.