Altay 1-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 37%, yet in-form Hatayspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Altay vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Hatayspor travel to Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı to take on Altay. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Altay stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Altay are significantly better at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hatayspor are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Altay in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 67% versus Hatayspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 67% | Hatayspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.21 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.845 / defence 1.293 | Hatayspor attack 0.813 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.078. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Altay's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Altay games / 15 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 37% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Hatayspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Altay as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hatayspor (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Altay 57% | Hatayspor 29% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 37% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Altay 1.21 / Hatayspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.845 / def 1.293 | Hatayspor attack 0.813 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Altay (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Altay xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hatayspor xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Hatayspor kick off?
Altay vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Hatayspor?
Altay 1 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Altay vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Hatayspor part of?
Altay vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 37% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Altay and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Altay and Hatayspor in?
Altay (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Altay's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.26
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Altay xG
Total xG
2.34
1.13
Hatayspor xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Altay and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Altay and 1.13 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Altay come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Altay — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Altay's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Altay are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Hatayspor away?
Altay's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.43 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Altay or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Altay have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Altay and Hatayspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Altay
0
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Hatayspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 1, Hatayspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Hatayspor 0-1 Altay.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 57%, Hatayspor 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Altay) and 29% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 43%; Altay have failed to score in 29% of games; Hatayspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Altay's recent matches and 29% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Altay's recent games and 29% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Altay and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Altay 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Altay 1-2 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.21 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.84 / defence 1.29 against Hatayspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 37% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 33%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 67%, Hatayspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.