Alanyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alanyaspor face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 18). Kick-off is Monday 25 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Samsunspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 6L across their last 8 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.00 PPG, Samsunspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 38% versus Samsunspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Samsunspor 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.64 xG and Samsunspor 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.896 / defence 1.214 | Samsunspor attack 0.823 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.260. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Samsunspor's projected output up. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 52 games and Samsunspor's last 16.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.21 | Draw 3.78 | Samsunspor 3.54. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 8 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 50% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 18 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.64 / Samsunspor 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.896 / def 1.214 | Samsunspor attack 0.823 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Samsunspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 25 December 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 18) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Alanyaspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.90x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 52 games and Samsunspor's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.78
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.26
Samsunspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.26 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 5D 7L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.06 PPG, Samsunspor on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across their last 8 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 8 away games (1W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 62%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.12 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 27 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2026: Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Alanyaspor) and 38% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor have failed to score in 38% of games; Samsunspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 38% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 62% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Samsunspor 3-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.64 xG and Samsunspor 1.26 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Samsunspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 28%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.06 PPG, Samsunspor 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.