Alanyaspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Rizespor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Rizespor at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rizespor away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Alanyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 0, Rizespor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Rizespor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Rizespor in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 53% | Rizespor 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.29 xG and Rizespor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.236 / defence 1.453 | Rizespor attack 0.624 / defence 1.497. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.260. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.497 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Alanyaspor games / 30 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 63% | Draw 20% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Rizespor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 60% | Rizespor 40%.

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