Alanyaspor 2-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Konyaspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 0.50 PPG, Konyaspor 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Konyaspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 49% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Konyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.37 xG and Konyaspor 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.857 / defence 1.236 | Konyaspor attack 0.921 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.202. Data: 49 Alanyaspor games / 49 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Konyaspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 40% | Konyaspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Alanyaspor 1.37 / Konyaspor 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.857 / def 1.236 | Konyaspor attack 0.921 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Konyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
36%
2.82
29%
3.45
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.37
Konyaspor xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.37 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 12D 24L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 15W 19D 15L from 49 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.04 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (10W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 8W 9D 7L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 15W 19D 15L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.46 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 46%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Alanyaspor and 62% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 54% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 62% of Konyaspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Alanyaspor and Konyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.37 xG and Konyaspor 1.37 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 65%, Konyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.04 PPG, Konyaspor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.