Alanyaspor 6-3 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 9 as Alanyaspor welcome Kayserispor to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.75 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 3W 2D 3L from 8 outings — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.75 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.38. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 38% versus Kayserispor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 25% | Kayserispor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Kayserispor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.908 / defence 1.173 | Kayserispor attack 0.777 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.139. Data: 8 Alanyaspor games / 8 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 30%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Kayserispor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 33% | Kayserispor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Alanyaspor 1.30 / Kayserispor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.908 / def 1.173 | Kayserispor attack 0.777 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kayserispor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor 6 - 3 Kayserispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.91) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.60
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Kayserispor xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.04 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 2D 2L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.75 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Kayserispor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 33%, Kayserispor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Alanyaspor and 33% for Kayserispor.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Kayserispor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 33% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 6-3 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kayserispor 6-3 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Kayserispor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 6-3 for 9 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Kayserispor attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 30%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 25%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.75 PPG, Kayserispor 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.