Alanyaspor 6-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hatayspor travel to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Thursday 20 January 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.10 PPG versus Hatayspor's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 0, Hatayspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–5 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 52% versus Hatayspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 43% | Hatayspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.52 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.024 / defence 1.303 | Hatayspor attack 0.793 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.092. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Alanyaspor games / 21 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Hatayspor 3.57. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 60% | Hatayspor 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Alanyaspor 1.52 / Hatayspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.024 / def 1.303 | Hatayspor attack 0.793 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hatayspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 20 January 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Alanyaspor 6 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alanyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.84
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
Hatayspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.13 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 9W 5D 7L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 11W 2D 8L from 21 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.52 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.52 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 11W 2D 8L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2022, when Alanyaspor won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Hatayspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 60%, Hatayspor 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Alanyaspor and 30% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 40%; Hatayspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 30% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 30% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Hatayspor 6-0 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.52 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.30 against Hatayspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 28%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 43%, Hatayspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.52 PPG, Hatayspor 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.