Alanyaspor 2-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gaziantep FK are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gaziantep FK trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Gaziantep FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 58% | Gaziantep FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.64 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.135 / defence 1.164 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.932 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.282. Data: 49 Alanyaspor games / 48 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Gaziantep FK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 80% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Alanyaspor 1.64 / Gaziantep FK 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.135 / def 1.164 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.932 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Gaziantep FK xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor 2 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 44% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.18
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.03
1.39
Gaziantep FK xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.39 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 11D 16L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.27 PPG from 48 outings (16W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.54 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 11W 6D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.54 points per game from 24 outings (3W 4D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.31 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 21W 11D 16L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 67%, Gaziantep FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Alanyaspor's games and 50% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 54% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 2-0 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.64 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.39 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gaziantep FK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 32%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 58%, Gaziantep FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.54 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.