Alanyaspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to GAIN Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at GAIN Park Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Alanyaspor: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Gaziantep FK, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Gaziantep FK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Gaziantep FK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.860 / defence 0.991 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.094 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.205. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Alanyaspor games / 52 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 27%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Gaziantep FK 3.70. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Gaziantep FK 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Alanyaspor 1.81 / Gaziantep FK 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.860 / def 0.991 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.094 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Gaziantep FK xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor 3 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (5 meetings): Alanyaspor 4W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.97
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.31
Gaziantep FK xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.31 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 21D 16L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.19 PPG from 52 outings (17W 11D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.27 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 9W 11D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (7W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.35 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 15W 21D 16L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.46 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 65%, Gaziantep FK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Alanyaspor and 69% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Alanyaspor's games and 62% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Alanyaspor's matches and 69% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.09 / defence 1.30, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 27%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Gaziantep FK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.27 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.