Adana Demirspor 1-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Trabzonspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Adana Demirspor) versus 1.90 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 52% versus Trabzonspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 48% | Trabzonspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.27 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.099 / defence 1.021 | Trabzonspor attack 1.001 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.223. Data: 33 Adana Demirspor games / 33 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 35% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Trabzonspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 35% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.27 / Trabzonspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.099 / def 1.021 | Trabzonspor attack 1.001 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 35% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.10x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.18
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.25 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 14W 10D 9L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 10D 2L from 33 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (8W 5D 3L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 4D 2L from 16 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.82 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 64%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 14W 10D 9L in their last 33 games (1.58 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 10D 2L in their last 33 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.81 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 44%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Adana Demirspor) and 56% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 56% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 1-3 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.27 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Trabzonspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 35% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 34%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 48%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.58. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.