Adana Demirspor 1-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Adana Demirspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Trabzonspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Adana Demirspor stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Adana Demirspor) versus 1.80 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Adana Demirspor's games and 80% of Trabzonspor's (from Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Trabzonspor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Adana Demirspor 1–4 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 64% and Trabzonspor 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Adana Demirspor 67% | Trabzonspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.87 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.623 / defence 0.900 | Trabzonspor attack 1.227 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.281. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack rating of 1.623 — their 2.87 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Adana Demirspor's projected output up. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.227, which lifts their away xG to 1.42. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 43 games and Trabzonspor's last 42.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.52 | Draw 5.17 | Trabzonspor 6.75. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.87 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 4.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 8 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Adana Demirspor 2.87 / Trabzonspor 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.623 / def 0.900 | Trabzonspor attack 1.227 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
73%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 October 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 8) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 66% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.62x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 43 games and Trabzonspor's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.17
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
4.29
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
6%
17.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
1%
119.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.42 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 23W 11D 8L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 20W 6D 16L from 42 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.90 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 2.30 PPG from their last 20 home games (14W 4D 2L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 2D 13L from their last 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.81 scored and 1.52 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 23W 11D 8L in their last 42 games (1.90 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 20W 6D 16L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.30 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 5-0 Adana Demirspor.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Adana Demirspor at 60%, Trabzonspor at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Adana Demirspor and 75% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Adana Demirspor's games and 75% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 75% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 90% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Trabzonspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Trabzonspor 1-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.87 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG, a combined 4.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.62 / defence 0.90 against Trabzonspor attack 1.23 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 15%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 67%, Trabzonspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.90 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.