Adana Demirspor 4-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 42%, yet in-form Sivasspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sivasspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Adana Demirspor at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Sivasspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Sivasspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Adana Demirspor 1–1 Sivasspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sivasspor trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 62% and Sivasspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Sivasspor 52%). Note also that Sivasspor surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Adana Demirspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.969 / defence 1.056 | Sivasspor attack 0.880 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.139. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 65 games and Sivasspor's last 65.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 42% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.37 | Draw 3.22 | Sivasspor 3.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sivasspor (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 42% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Adana Demirspor 1.38 / Sivasspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.969 / def 1.056 | Sivasspor attack 0.880 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sivasspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Adana Demirspor 4 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 42% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 65 games and Sivasspor's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.22
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.44
1.06
Sivasspor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.06 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 21D 16L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 65 outings (20W 19D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 20W 7D 5L across their last 32 home games, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 32 away games (11W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 60%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 28W 21D 16L in their last 65 games (1.62 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 20W 19D 26L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.09 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 53%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Adana Demirspor and 62% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sivasspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 56% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 62% of Sivasspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 87% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Sivasspor 4-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Sivasspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 42% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 27%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.