Adana Demirspor 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 78%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Adana Demirspor, 0 for Hatayspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 59% versus Hatayspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Hatayspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.71 xG and Hatayspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.206 / defence 0.776 | Hatayspor attack 0.738 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.336. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Adana Demirspor games / 59 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 78% | Draw 14% | Hatayspor 8%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Hatayspor 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 60% | Hatayspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 78% | Draw 14% | Hatayspor 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 50% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.71 / Hatayspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.206 / def 0.776 | Hatayspor attack 0.738 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Hatayspor xG
50%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 78% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 2 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.21x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.74x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
78%
1.28
14%
7.29
8%
12.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.47
0.77
Hatayspor xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.29
14%
Draw
12.48
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
7%
15.01
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
187.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.77 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 59 games, going 25W 19D 15L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.29 PPG from 59 outings (21W 13D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.29 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 15W 9D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (6W 4D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 25W 19D 15L in their last 59 games (1.59 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 25L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.93 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 0-5 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 54%, Hatayspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Adana Demirspor) and 57% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hatayspor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 43% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 57% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.71 xG and Hatayspor 0.77 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.78 against Hatayspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.40, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 78% | Draw 14% | Hatayspor 8%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 54%, Hatayspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.59 PPG, Hatayspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.