Yeni Malatyaspor 0-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor meet at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 5L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Yeni Malatyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 1W 0D 3L this season (4 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Hatayspor (all games): 4W 1D 2L across 7 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.86 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Hatayspor are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.86 vs 0.86). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 29% versus Hatayspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 43% | Hatayspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.15 xG and Hatayspor 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.970 / defence 1.675 | Hatayspor attack 1.031 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.071. Data: 7 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 7 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 24% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 54%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Hatayspor 1.85. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Yeni Malatyaspor 50% | Hatayspor 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 24% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.15 / Hatayspor 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.970 / def 1.675 | Hatayspor attack 1.031 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Hatayspor xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 0 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 24% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Yeni Malatyaspor's attack rating (0.97) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (1.03x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
24%
4.24
23%
4.40
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.00
1.85
Hatayspor xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
4%
26.99
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.85 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 2W 0D 5L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 2L across 7 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hatayspor by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yeni Malatyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 2.00 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hatayspor in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Hatayspor away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Yeni Malatyaspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Hatayspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Hatayspor 5-2 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 33% (Hatayspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Yeni Malatyaspor and 33% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hatayspor in 67%; Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent matches and 33% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent games and 33% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 0-2 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.15 xG and Hatayspor 1.85 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Yeni Malatyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.68 against Hatayspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 24% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 54%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 43%, Hatayspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hatayspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.