Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Giresunspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Yeni Malatyaspor welcome Giresunspor to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Yeni Malatyaspor's home record at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Giresunspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Giresunspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Giresunspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Yeni Malatyaspor, 1 for Giresunspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Giresunspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Yeni Malatyaspor in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 36% versus Giresunspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 36% | Giresunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.08 xG and Giresunspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.738 / defence 1.418 | Giresunspor attack 0.808 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.220. Yeni Malatyaspor's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 31 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Giresunspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Giresunspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Giresunspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 70% | Giresunspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Giresunspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.08 / Giresunspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.738 / def 1.418 | Giresunspor attack 0.808 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Giresunspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 0 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 28% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Yeni Malatyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 1W.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Yeni Malatyaspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
28%
3.57
29%
3.45
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.40
Giresunspor xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.43
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.40 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yeni Malatyaspor come into this having played 31 games, going 5W 5D 21L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Giresunspor sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (10W 6D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Giresunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Yeni Malatyaspor's home form reads 3W 3D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Giresunspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.10 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Current Season
Giresunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 5W 5D 21L in their last 31 games (0.65 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 10W 6D 15L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Giresunspor's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.80 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Giresunspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor?
Giresunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 60%, Giresunspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 40% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Giresunspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent matches and 47% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent games and 40% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Giresunspor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.08 xG and Giresunspor 1.40 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Yeni Malatyaspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.42 against Giresunspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Giresunspor 43%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 36%, Giresunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Giresunspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Giresunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Giresunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.