Yeni Malatyaspor 0-5 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fenerbahçe make the trip to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to face Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Yeni Malatyaspor (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Yeni Malatyaspor's home record at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fenerbahçe are 2.10 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.40 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Yeni Malatyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Fenerbahçe in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Yeni Malatyaspor, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 38% versus Fenerbahçe 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.731 / defence 1.462 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.336 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.358. Yeni Malatyaspor's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 2.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 8% | Draw 18% | Fenerbahçe 75%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 12.50 | Draw 5.56 | Fenerbahçe 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 8% | Draw 18% | Fenerbahçe 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 54% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 / Fenerbahçe 2.65 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.731 / def 1.462 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.336 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.65
Fenerbahçe xG
54%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Yeni Malatyaspor 0 - 5 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 8% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 75% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Yeni Malatyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.34x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 2.65.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.8%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
8%
12.67
18%
5.70
75%
1.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.49
2.65
Fenerbahçe xG
12.67
8%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
1.34
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
7%
14.20
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
1%
179.93
32%
3.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 2.65 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 5W 5D 27L from 37 games, a 0.54 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 7L across 37 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.35 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yeni Malatyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 3W 3D 12L from 18 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 9W 5D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.84 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 5W 5D 27L in their last 37 games (0.54 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 20W 10D 7L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.67 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 0-5 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Yeni Malatyaspor, 72% for Fenerbahçe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 56% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 72% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 56% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Yeni Malatyaspor 0-5 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.65 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Yeni Malatyaspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 2.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 1.46 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.34 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 8% | Draw 18% | Fenerbahçe 75%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 40%, Fenerbahçe 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.54. Form held, and they took the win. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.