Yeni Malatyaspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to face Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yeni Malatyaspor have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Yeni Malatyaspor are significantly better at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beşiktaş are 1.20 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beşiktaş in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yeni Malatyaspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Yeni Malatyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 33% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 38% | Beşiktaş 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.16 xG and Beşiktaş 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.859 / defence 1.803 | Beşiktaş attack 0.850 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.103. Data: 21 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 22 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 26% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 50%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 2.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 60% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 26% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.16 / Beşiktaş 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.859 / def 1.803 | Beşiktaş attack 0.850 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Beşiktaş xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Yeni Malatyaspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 26% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Yeni Malatyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.85x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
26%
3.86
24%
4.10
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
2.85
1.69
Beşiktaş xG
3.86
26%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
20.95
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.69 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yeni Malatyaspor come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 3D 14L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Yeni Malatyaspor's home form reads 2W 2D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Attack vs Defence
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 3D 14L in their last 21 games (0.71 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.73 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
1
Draws
1
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 64%, Beşiktaş 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 46% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Beşiktaş in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 54% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent games and 46% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as Yeni Malatyaspor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.16 xG and Beşiktaş 1.69 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.80 against Beşiktaş attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 26% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 50%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 38%, Beşiktaş 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.