Trabzonspor 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Samsunspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Trabzonspor) versus 1.90 (Samsunspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Samsunspor 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 53% versus Samsunspor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 50% | Samsunspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.23 xG and Samsunspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.813 | Samsunspor attack 0.939 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.321. Data: 39 Trabzonspor games / 38 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 40% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Samsunspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Samsunspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 40% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Trabzonspor 1.23 / Samsunspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.025 / def 0.813 | Samsunspor attack 0.939 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Samsunspor xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 40% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Trabzonspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.21
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.24
1.01
Samsunspor xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.01 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 16W 11D 11L from 38 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 7D 10L across 38 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.55 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 12W 4D 3L from 19 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 9W 5D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Samsunspor in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 21W 7D 10L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.11 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 47%, Samsunspor 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Trabzonspor) and 53% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Samsunspor in 47%; Samsunspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 37% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Trabzonspor's matches and 53% of Samsunspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.23 xG and Samsunspor 1.01 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Samsunspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 40% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 29%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 50%, Samsunspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Samsunspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.55 PPG, Samsunspor 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.