Trabzonspor 1-2 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ümraniyespor travel to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ümraniyespor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ümraniyespor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Trabzonspor, 0 for Ümraniyespor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Ümraniyespor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 46% versus Ümraniyespor 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Ümraniyespor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.38 xG and Ümraniyespor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.171 / defence 0.588 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.032 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.320. Ümraniyespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.588 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Trabzonspor games / 22 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 72% | Draw 17% | Ümraniyespor 11%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Ümraniyespor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 20% | Ümraniyespor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 72% | Draw 17% | Ümraniyespor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 50% | xG Trabzonspor 2.38 / Ümraniyespor 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.171 / def 0.588 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.032 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ümraniyespor xG
50%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 2 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 72% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.17x the league average against Ümraniyespor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.97
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.18
0.80
Ümraniyespor xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.97
17%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
9%
10.80
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
100.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.80 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 11W 5D 6L from 22 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ümraniyespor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 13L across 22 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 7W 3D 0L from 10 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ümraniyespor's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.23 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 68%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 3W 6D 13L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.40 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Ümraniyespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ümraniyespor in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Ümraniyespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 20%, Ümraniyespor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Trabzonspor) and 60% (Ümraniyespor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Ümraniyespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 70% of Ümraniyespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 60% of Ümraniyespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ümraniyespor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor beat Trabzonspor 1-2 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.38 xG and Ümraniyespor 0.80 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ümraniyespor outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 0.59 against Ümraniyespor attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 72% | Draw 17% | Ümraniyespor 11%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a Ümraniyespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Ümraniyespor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Ümraniyespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.