Trabzonspor 4-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Göztepe meet at Medical Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Medical Park Stadyumu this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medical Park Stadyumu.
Göztepe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Göztepe away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trabzonspor, 0 for Göztepe and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 61% and Göztepe 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Göztepe 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.74 xG and Göztepe 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.060 / defence 0.885 | Göztepe attack 0.897 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.182. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Trabzonspor games / 28 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 56% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 20%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 56% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Trabzonspor 1.74 / Göztepe 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.060 / def 0.885 | Göztepe attack 0.897 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Göztepe xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Trabzonspor 4 - 2 Göztepe.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 56% chance of winning, Göztepe a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Trabzonspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Göztepe in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.06x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.90x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.10
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.68
0.94
Göztepe xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
28.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.94 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 2.39 PPG on a 20W 7D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Göztepe's form line: 7W 6D 15L from 28 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 2.38 PPG from 13 outings (9W 4D 0L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 3W 4D 6L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.21 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Göztepe in 71%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 20W 7D 1L in their last 28 games (2.39 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 7W 6D 15L in their last 28 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Göztepe away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.38 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Göztepe in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Trabzonspor, 100% for Göztepe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Trabzonspor and 85% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Trabzonspor's matches and 85% of Göztepe's.
Do Trabzonspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Göztepe 4-2 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.74 xG and Göztepe 0.94 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Göztepe attack 0.90 / defence 1.37, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 56% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 20%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Göztepe 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.