Trabzonspor 2-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 44%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Antalyaspor at Medical Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Medical Park Stadyumu, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antalyaspor are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 0, Antalyaspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 65% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.052 / defence 0.993 | Antalyaspor attack 0.780 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.261. Data: 34 Trabzonspor games / 34 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Antalyaspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 60% | Antalyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Trabzonspor 1.35 / Antalyaspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.052 / def 0.993 | Antalyaspor attack 0.780 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Antalyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 44% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 0W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.05x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.23
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.33
0.98
Antalyaspor xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.98 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 34 games, going 22W 10D 2L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (14W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 11W 6D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 22W 10D 2L in their last 34 games (2.24 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 14W 9D 11L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.29 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 65%, Antalyaspor 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Trabzonspor) and 47% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 41% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 47% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, as Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Antalyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 25%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.